Polls & Data
Trump Approval Rating: History, Charts & How He Compares
Donald Trump has one of the most closely tracked — and most polarizing — approval ratings in modern presidential history. Unlike most presidents, whose approval ratings fluctuate significantly over their terms, Trump's numbers have remained remarkably stable and deeply divided across both of his presidencies.
This article covers his approval rating history from his first term (2017–2021) through his second term (2025–present), how he compares to recent presidents, and what the numbers actually mean.
What is a presidential approval rating?
A presidential approval rating measures the percentage of Americans who approve of the job the president is doing. It is measured through regular polls conducted by organizations like Gallup, Quinnipiac, Reuters/Ipsos, and others. The approval rating is one of the most widely used indicators of a president's political strength.
Approval ratings are distinct from election results — they measure ongoing job performance, not vote preference. A president can have a low approval rating and still win re-election (as Trump did in 2024), or a high approval rating and still lose.
Trump's first term approval rating (2017–2021)
Trump entered office in January 2017 with an approval rating of approximately 45% — the lowest inauguration-day approval of any modern president at that time. Most newly inaugurated presidents benefit from a "honeymoon period" of elevated approval, but Trump's deeply divided electorate meant this effect was minimal.
Inauguration — ~45% approval
Lowest inauguration-day approval rating since modern polling began. Reflected the deep partisan division of the 2016 election.
Charlottesville — drops to ~34%
After his response to the Charlottesville rally, Trump's approval fell to its lowest point of his first term — approximately 34% in some polls. This remained his all-time low.
Tax Cuts signed — brief uptick
Signing of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provided a modest boost. Republican approval surged while Democratic approval remained near zero.
COVID-19 — temporary rally to ~49%
Like many leaders during crises, Trump saw a brief "rally around the flag" effect as COVID-19 began. His approval briefly reached ~49% — his all-time high — before declining as the pandemic response became more controversial.
January 6th — drops to ~34%
Following the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, Trump's approval fell sharply to match his previous low. He left office with an approval rating of approximately 34%.
Trump's second term approval rating (2025–present)
Trump began his second term in January 2025 with an approval rating of approximately 47% — higher than his first-term start, reflecting his stronger 2024 electoral performance including winning the popular vote for the first time.
Second-term approval ratings are typically more stable than first-term ratings, as the public already has a well-formed opinion of the president. Trump's second-term numbers have followed a similar pattern to his first — relatively narrow range, heavily partisan split, and sensitive to major news events.
How Trump compares to other presidents
Average approval rating — recent presidents
Trump's first-term average approval of approximately 41% (Gallup) was the lowest of any modern president — just below Biden's. However, context matters: Trump's approval never collapsed to the lows seen by George W. Bush (25% during the financial crisis) or Nixon (24% during Watergate). His floor was higher, but so was his ceiling's limit.
Why does Trump's approval rating barely move?
Political scientists call this "approval rating calcification" — the phenomenon where a president's numbers become resistant to change. Several factors explain Trump's unusually stable ratings:
Extreme partisan sorting. Americans have sorted more completely into partisan camps than at any point in modern history. Republicans approve of Trump at rates above 85-90%; Democrats disapprove at similar rates. Independents are the only swing group, and even they have become more polarized.
Media fragmentation. Supporters and opponents of Trump consume largely separate media ecosystems, meaning major events are interpreted very differently by each group and rarely move opinions across the divide.
Strong personal brand. Trump is one of the most well-known figures in American public life. Most Americans formed their views of him long before he entered politics, making new information less likely to change existing opinions.
Does approval rating predict election outcomes?
Historically, presidential approval ratings are strong predictors of election outcomes — presidents with approval above 50% tend to win re-election, while those below 50% tend to lose. Trump is the notable exception to this rule.
In 2020, Trump lost re-election with an approval rating in the low-to-mid 40s — consistent with the historical pattern. In 2024, he won the presidency despite approval ratings that would historically predict a loss. This reflects the unusual nature of the Trump-era political environment, where traditional electoral models broke down.
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